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Media Briefing: Vaccine and Virus Trends Ahead of Winter

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The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health hosted a media briefing on Dec. 16, 2025, to examine the latest trends in seasonal respiratory viruses as the U.S. enters the winter season, as well as overall vaccine rates and the risk that the U.S. will lose its measles elimination status.  

With influenza cases rising, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity at low levels, and continued monitoring of COVID-19 variants, speakers broke down what these patterns mean for transmission risks, health systems, and prevention efforts.  

Topics discussed: 

  • December U.S. influenza activity, including circulation of H1N1, IBV, and the emerging H3N2 clade K strain.
  • Why RSV cases are unusually low this season and what that means for vulnerable populations.
  • COVID-19 trends heading into winter and how they may overlap with flu season.
  • Vaccination uptake patterns.
  • Rising measles cases and the risk of the U.S. losing its measles elimination status.
  • Key takeaways from the December 2025 Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meeting and potential impacts on vaccine confidence. 

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TRANSCRIPT

Note: The following transcript is automatically generated and may contain errors. Please cross-reference the audio before quoting.

00:00:00.964,00:00:11.834

Ellen Wilson: Welcome, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Ellen Wilson, and I'll be the moderator for this media briefing, which is hosted by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

00:00:11.834,00:00:21.654

Ellen Wilson: Today's speakers will discuss the latest trends in seasonal respiratory viruses and vaccine uptake as the U.S. enters the winter season.

00:00:21.654,00:00:37.524

Ellen Wilson: I'd like to briefly introduce our speakers. Andrew Pekosz is a professor and vice chair of the W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular, Microbiology, and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

00:00:37.524,00:00:44.964

Ellen Wilson: He is also co-director of the Johns Hopkins Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Response.

00:00:45.094,00:01:04.503

Ellen Wilson: William Moss is a professor in the Departments of Epidemiology, International Health, and Molecular Microbiology, and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He is also Executive Director at the Bloomberg School's International Vaccine Access Center.

00:01:04.784,00:01:23.983

Ellen Wilson: We will have time for questions following the questions of the speakers at the intro. We will take some that have been submitted in advance of the briefing, and some from the Zoom chat. If you have a question, please enter it in the Zoom chat addressed to panelists and hosts. Please enter your name, media outlet in question.

00:01:23.984,00:01:26.273

Ellen Wilson: We hope to cover as many as possible.

00:01:26.954,00:01:42.194

Ellen Wilson: Please note that participants are welcome to use images, video, or quotes directly from the briefing, and that the content is for immediate release. Participants will be muted during this briefing, and it will be recorded. Let's go ahead and start.

00:01:42.554,00:01:49.924

Ellen Wilson: Professor Pekosz, can you tell us about the relative risk of respiratory diseases this year compared to during the pandemic?

00:01:51.224,00:02:04.344

Andy Pekosz: Yeah, so in the U.S, the influenza season has started around the time we usually expect it to. Upticks in cases at Thanksgiving and weekly increases since then are expected to continue into the new year.

00:02:04.354,00:02:19.684

Andy Pekosz: Things have restored to what we consider the pre-pandemic sort of cycles of respiratory virus infection. There is a lot of variation in case numbers based on the state you are in right now, with states like New York and Louisiana seeing large numbers of cases.

00:02:19.734,00:02:36.453

Andy Pekosz: There are 3 influenza viruses that cause disease in people, H1N1, H3N2, and IBV, and there is a relatively new form of H3N2 identified this year called Clade K, which has resulted in increased cases.

00:02:36.454,00:02:40.874

Andy Pekosz: and an earlier start to the influenza season in the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada.

00:02:41.084,00:02:57.413

Andy Pekosz: It is currently driving influenza cases in the U.S. as well. It has mutations that may allow it to evade some, but not all, of the influenza vaccine-induced protection. The H1N1 and IBV viruses circulating look to be good matches to the vaccine.

00:02:58.004,00:03:10.383

Andy Pekosz: RSV cases are at low numbers in the U.S. this fall. It's not clear exactly why, but two strong RSV seasons combined with new RSV vaccines and treatments may all be contributing to that reduced case number.

00:03:10.584,00:03:18.744

Andy Pekosz: A reminder that RSV affects not only the very young, but also those over the age of 65, and can result in significant rates of hospitalization.

00:03:19.204,00:03:37.784

Andy Pekosz: Things are relatively quiet on the COVID-19 front. We had a small spike of cases in late summer, early fall, but nowhere near what we have seen in prior years. COVID-19 sometimes increases midwinter, so we are looking carefully to see how a COVID-19 spike might fit in with the expected increases in influenza cases.

00:03:37.784,00:03:45.824

Andy Pekosz: But really, no worrisome variants have emerged recently, though there are a few that are circulating globally that are being monitored carefully.

00:03:46.774,00:04:00.984

Ellen Wilson: Thank you, Professor Pekosz. Now a question for Professor Moss. What is happening with measles cases in the United States, and are we likely to lose our measles elimination status? If so, what are the implications of that?

00:04:01.654,00:04:20.874

William Moss: Yes, thank you, Ellen, and thank you, everyone. We've certainly been tracking measles very carefully this year, after having historic low numbers here in the United States and globally during the early years of the pandemic. It's very important that we track measles because it can have serious

00:04:20.874,00:04:35.073

William Moss: outcomes, including hospitalization and, more rarely, death, and we have safe and effective vaccine. And measles often serves as what we say, the canary in the coal mine. It really identifies

00:04:35.074,00:04:41.644

William Moss: Weaknesses in the immunization system and programs because of its high contagiousness.

00:04:41.644,00:04:59.294

William Moss: So the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is reporting measles cases here in the United States every Wednesday, and so the current data is up through December 9th, last Tuesday, where 1,912 confirmed measles cases have been reported this year in the United States.

00:04:59.294,00:05:15.034

William Moss: That's the most cases we've had in the United States in the past 25 years, since the year 2000, when measles was declared eliminated, and in fact, you have to go all the way back to 1992, when there were just over 2,000 cases in the United States.

00:05:15.034,00:05:27.404

William Moss: We know that these numbers are increasing in large part right now because of an outbreak in South Carolina. The South Carolina Department of Health has reported 129 cases.

00:05:27.404,00:05:30.354

William Moss: And that is expected to increase.

00:05:30.354,00:05:53.814

William Moss: About 11%, according to the CDC, of cases here in the United States have been hospitalized. We've had 3 deaths this year. Not surprisingly, 92% of the cases have been in those who are unvaccinated or without a known vaccination status. That's in large part because Texas has not been reporting the vaccination status of the measles cases.

00:05:53.874,00:06:09.433

William Moss: But I think perhaps surprising to some people is the age distribution of cases, where only about a quarter of cases have occurred in children younger than 5 years of age, and about a third in those older than 20 years of age, so in adults.

00:06:09.434,00:06:19.154

William Moss: And this reflects the fact that we've had this long-standing under-vaccination in some communities here in the United States where these outbreaks are occurring.

00:06:19.154,00:06:31.894

William Moss: Measles… it's important to note that the measles outbreaks here in the United States are not the result of the virus mutating, although it does change genetically, and we can talk more about that.

00:06:31.894,00:06:42.354

William Moss: But it's really because we have clusters of unvaccinated or undervaccinated communities where there are susceptible people. That's what's driving these outbreaks.

00:06:42.354,00:06:52.823

William Moss: Colleagues of mine at the International Vaccine Access Center have updated an analysis looking at the cost of these outbreaks, and the public health cost

00:06:52.824,00:07:04.554

William Moss: Per case was, approximately, on average, $43,000, with a wide range, depending on the size of the outbreak, from $7,000 to close to $250,000.

00:07:04.624,00:07:22.303

William Moss: the incremental cost per case was about $16,000 per additional measles case. So these outbreaks are very expensive. We are, there is a threat that the United States could lose its measles elimination status, again, after 25 years.

00:07:22.304,00:07:40.653

William Moss: Elimination is a fragile state, and regions and countries can gain and lose elimination status. The region of the Americas, which includes North and South America, originally gained its elimination status in 2016, lost it in 2018 because of large outbreaks in Brazil and Venezuela.

00:07:40.654,00:07:47.334

William Moss: gained it again in 2024, and then we lost it again this November when Canada lost its measles elimination status.

00:07:47.334,00:08:02.943

William Moss: And, if this, if we can demonstrate that measles virus transmission has kind of continued throughout this year into January of 2026, the United States is also at risk of losing its measles elimination status.

00:08:04.194,00:08:16.144

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you, Professor Moss. Now we will take other questions, and a reminder, if you have a question, please enter into the Zoom chat with your name, media outlet question, and to whom you'd like to address your question.

00:08:16.144,00:08:35.454

Ellen Wilson: The first question is from freelance journalist Deborah Bloomberg for Professor Moss. Many adults are now getting their measles antibody levels checked to make sure they still have immunity after childhood vaccination. Do you anticipate a need for this type of check safeguarding with other diseases as well? And if so, which ones?

00:08:35.814,00:08:55.764

William Moss: Yes, this is an interesting question, and an important one, and I can understand the desire for some people to have their antibodies levels checked, but I would say, in general, that is not advised, and currently the CDC does not recommend checking antibody levels.

00:08:55.764,00:09:04.343

William Moss: Outside of some specific circumstances. So, for example, for pregnant women, or healthcare providers, or sometimes in healthcare settings.

00:09:04.344,00:09:28.844

William Moss: In general, it's much better, just to get, for individuals who are uncertain of their vaccination status to get vaccinated. And that's what the CDC currently recommends across a number of vaccine-preventable diseases, and what I would also agree with. And even for those who have well-documented measles vaccination status.

00:09:28.864,00:09:53.774

William Moss: If they get an antibody test, and it's negative, the CDC does not even recommend revaccination in that situation. Those individuals almost certainly have protective immunity, they'll have a memory immune response if they encounter measles virus again, and the commercial tests available just aren't sensitive at kind of that lower levels of antibodies around the seropositivity threshold.

00:09:55.044,00:10:12.743

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. Here's a question from John Daly with Colorado Public Radio for Professor Pekosz. Can you describe COVID and flu national uptake trends are like now, and for flu, how that compares with before the pandemic? Are vaccinations down in general?

00:10:12.894,00:10:14.513

Ellen Wilson: And what's driving that?

00:10:15.504,00:10:23.394

Andy Pekosz: Yeah, thank you for that question. We have seen, since the end of the, you know, the severe phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

00:10:23.394,00:10:36.084

Andy Pekosz: that vaccinations against COVID-19 and influenza have been trending down. Those trends have been modest, but they're certainly present across all age groups.

00:10:36.084,00:10:55.843

Andy Pekosz: And, you know, the reasons driving that are very varied. Certainly, we're not seeing as big of a push to get the population vaccinated against these two illnesses as we have during the early days of the pandemic, and I think that is contributing partly to it.

00:10:55.874,00:11:02.693

Andy Pekosz: It is important to note that, you know, we always want the science to drive our policies in terms of vaccines.

00:11:03.164,00:11:09.463

Andy Pekosz: It's very clear that the COVID-19 vaccines and the influenza vaccines are safe.

00:11:09.524,00:11:17.384

Andy Pekosz: They do provide protection against sometimes disease, oftentimes against severe disease, and while

00:11:17.384,00:11:37.254

Andy Pekosz: Both can be improved. They certainly are very good in terms of stemming severe disease, particularly in at-risk populations. And I think that message needs to get put out there even more strongly, because vaccines are our best line and our first line of protection from these respiratory viruses that are causing significant amount of disease in our population.

00:11:38.324,00:11:49.484

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. Here's a question from Tina Say with Science News for Professor Pekosz. Why does the flu variant currently circulating seem to produce worse illness than in previous years?

00:11:50.694,00:12:06.654

Andy Pekosz: Yeah, so we're still in the middle of trying to figure out whether it's producing worse illness, or whether what we're seeing is a large number of cases that are increasing, and then there's a correspondingly similar increase in terms of the severe illness.

00:12:06.654,00:12:22.294

Andy Pekosz: There have been reports that, you know, the disease is particularly strong in children, and certainly there are reports of the elderly having higher hospitalization rates. Those are two things we expect with any influenza season surge.

00:12:22.304,00:12:29.574

Andy Pekosz: So, whether we're simply seeing more cases because this Clade K influenza virus is evading

00:12:29.734,00:12:42.203

Andy Pekosz: immunity, and therefore more people are susceptible to infection, or if it's really causing more severe disease on a case-by-case basis, it's still something that is not completely clear, but

00:12:42.324,00:12:52.943

Andy Pekosz: let me… but what is clear is that cases are increasing, and we're seeing a lot of influenza cases increasing across the country, and that's a trend that we're sure will continue into the new year.

00:12:53.464,00:13:09.963

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. Here are questions from Jennifer Kalfas with the Wall Street Journal for Professor Moss. Can you expand on the risk of the U.S. losing its measles elimination status? Are we able to connect the cases in Utah and Arizona with the Texas outbreak clearly?

00:13:09.964,00:13:22.543

Ellen Wilson: And then, another question. For the U.S. to lose its measles elimination status, must the virus be spreading continuously from one outbreak for at least a year, or one measles strain?

00:13:23.214,00:13:24.983

Ellen Wilson: So, a lot of questions there.

00:13:24.984,00:13:39.634

William Moss: Yeah, no, these are really important questions for determining the measles elimination status of the United States, but they're tricky, and I think that the questions are trying to get at the nuance here. So…

00:13:39.734,00:13:41.474

William Moss: the definition

00:13:41.754,00:13:55.053

William Moss: of measles elimination is continuous transmission of measles virus in a defined geographic area, whether that's a country or a region, for 12 months or more.

00:13:55.054,00:14:03.644

William Moss: And so, a country can have, like the United States, we could have multiple importations that result in

00:14:03.774,00:14:16.793

William Moss: Outbreaks, but then those outbreaks kind of die out, and then there's a new importation, and that could go on for more than 12 months, and we could still maintain our measles elimination status.

00:14:16.904,00:14:34.414

William Moss: So the trick here is kind of establishing continuous transmission of measles virus within the United States. And this is where it gets tricky. So one way to link outbreaks, let's say the outbreak in West Texas with the outbreaks in Utah and Arizona.

00:14:34.414,00:14:49.404

William Moss: is through what we call making an epidemiological link. So, individuals with measles are interviewed, and you try to work out the contact patterns that epidemiologically link cases.

00:14:49.404,00:15:02.314

William Moss: And so that's a good way to do it, but oftentimes, in these outbreak investigations, there is no epidemiological link. People don't know where they got exposed to measles virus.

00:15:02.314,00:15:12.924

William Moss: So another strategy is to use the genetics of the virus to see whether the measles viruses are related.

00:15:12.924,00:15:17.894

William Moss: This, too, is not straightforward, and I think this is where we're going to get into some of the

00:15:18.174,00:15:28.474

William Moss: debates here. There are 24 known measles virus genotypes, but only 2 circulating in the world right now, B3 and D8.

00:15:28.474,00:15:50.484

William Moss: The outbreaks in the United States, as well as in Mexico and Canada, have been this DH strain. But that classification is based solely on a small… genotyping a small region of the measles virus, and doesn't really give us the spatial or temporal resolution that we need to really link cases or link outbreaks across states.

00:15:50.504,00:16:08.153

William Moss: So states are working with the CDC, are doing more what we call whole genome sequencing, basically sequencing the whole measles virus genome, and that's going to allow us, give us much finer resolution, on, the relationship between the strains.

00:16:08.154,00:16:31.404

William Moss: But the virus… measles virus does evolve. It doesn't evolve away from the protection of the vaccine, but it does mutate over time, and so, you know, the question's going to be, what difference really makes it different? Over the course of the year, you know, from January 2025 in West Texas to, let's say, South Carolina in January 20…

00:16:31.404,00:16:32.354

William Moss: 26.

00:16:32.354,00:16:53.864

William Moss: you know, how much different does the virus have to be for us to say that these are actually different outbreaks, probably had a different importation source? And that's what's going to be tricky, and so those data are not yet available. The CDC has not put out any information on measles outbreaks in their MMWR since April.

00:16:53.864,00:17:10.904

William Moss: There was a posting by the CDC's Acting Director, Jim O'Neill, that suggested that preliminary genomic analysis was that the Utah, Arizona cases were different, were not directly linked to the West Texas outbreak, but we…

00:17:10.904,00:17:35.703

William Moss: Haven't seen those data. What's going to happen in January is the Pan American Health Organization and the World Health Organization, along with the U.S. government and the CDC, are going to work together to try to determine whether this was one continuous outbreak, with, in different states, continuous trains of transmission or not. I think the burden of proof is going to be on those who claim that it was not.

00:17:35.854,00:17:52.873

William Moss: And that's what we saw in Canada as well, when it lost its measles elimination status on November 10th. So, a lot more in this space, but we don't have enough information to really say, at this point, whether this is continuous transmission or not.

00:17:53.384,00:18:08.954

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. Super helpful. And here's a question from Mike Staub with Associated Press for you also, Professor Moss. Have you seen a change in the comprehensiveness or reliability of measles reporting this year from the CDC?

00:18:10.964,00:18:35.933

William Moss: I… the CDC is reporting a weekly. I don't have any reason to… to question, those data. We'll have to see when we have this discussion about the measles virus genotypes and whether the decision is made that it was or whether it's not continuous transmission. But some of the reporting by the CDC is limited.

00:18:35.934,00:18:54.913

William Moss: So, for example, in its geographic scope, this question does give me an opportunity to promote our IVAC measles tracker that's on our IVAC website. This was work led by Lauren Gardner in the Whiting School of Engineering here, working with us at IVAC.

00:18:55.084,00:19:00.053

William Moss: And her whole team, where we actually, display on our map

00:19:00.444,00:19:13.734

William Moss: the county-level data, which you won't find on the CDC website. But I would say, up to date, we have no reason to question the CDC data on measles.

00:19:14.224,00:19:32.363

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. Here's a question from Mandy Gather Nottingham with CNN News Source for Professor Pekosz. What do we expect when it comes to severity of this respiratory virus season, and is it too late to get a flu shot, or can you still get protection by getting it now?

00:19:33.554,00:19:41.013

Andy Pekosz: Well, I'll start with that last part. It is not too late to get a flu shot. We're really at the beginning of the influenza season here in the U.N.

00:19:41.544,00:19:53.934

Andy Pekosz: It takes anywhere from 10 to 14 days for an influenza vaccine to really generate that immune response that's going to help you fight off the infection or reduce disease severity.

00:19:53.934,00:20:12.213

Andy Pekosz: So it is certainly not too late, especially as we're thinking about holiday gatherings and travel. Now would be a great time for individuals to go out and get that last influenza vaccine or that COVID vaccine to provide one layer of protection for this holiday season.

00:20:12.274,00:20:19.854

Andy Pekosz: We certainly are expecting influenza cases to increase. The…

00:20:20.234,00:20:35.274

Andy Pekosz: Flu season is not started early here in the U.S. like it has in other countries, but if we're looking at other countries, we're seeing that this clade K H3N2 is associated with a large increase in cases when it starts to circulate.

00:20:35.274,00:20:44.243

Andy Pekosz: So, it's very difficult to predict a flu season, but right now, we're at the beginning of what we probably are going to see as a pretty severe influenza season.

00:20:44.244,00:20:55.333

Andy Pekosz: driven primarily by this Clade K virus. And again, we think that this Clade K virus is evading population immunity, meaning more people are susceptible to infection.

00:20:55.334,00:21:09.434

Andy Pekosz: Because it has mutations that are making it less able to be recognized by your body's immune response. And so, therefore, more cases will eventually lead to more severe cases as well. So,

00:21:09.544,00:21:20.203

Andy Pekosz: But again, we're at the beginning of that flu season right now, and now's a great time to take some vaccines, against flu and against COVID to make sure that we're doing everything we can to limit that spread of that virus.

00:21:21.004,00:21:45.993

Ellen Wilson: And Professor Pekosz, more follow-up on this from Lauren Young with Scientific American. You mentioned that the mutations in the strain of H3N2 subclade K may allow it to evade some of the flu vaccine's protection. Can you elaborate on this? And then, what do we know so far? Elaborate further on this if you… if you have something. What do we know so far about the strain severity and or transmissibility?

00:21:45.994,00:21:54.353

Ellen Wilson: Are there certain groups who are more vulnerable? And do we know if the subclade K also was what drove the flu season in Australia?

00:21:55.224,00:22:12.524

Andy Pekosz: Yeah, so this subclade K drove particularly the end of the flu season in Australia. Again, Australia's in the southern hemisphere, so their winters are during our summers. The clade K virus seems to be driving influenza cases in England, Canada, and Japan.

00:22:12.524,00:22:20.543

Andy Pekosz: And the CDC is reporting that it's the dominant influenza virus strain that's circulating here in the U.S. population.

00:22:20.744,00:22:36.854

Andy Pekosz: It evades the vaccine and pre-existing immunity in the population because two of the places on the virus protein where your protective antibodies bind to are probably going to be blocked by new mutations that the virus has picked up.

00:22:37.014,00:22:53.774

Andy Pekosz: What we don't know is if these mutations are going to cause more disease or more severe disease in the virus. It's somewhat more straightforward to look at the sequence of the virus and see, oh, these are mutations that will affect vaccine efficacy.

00:22:53.774,00:22:59.793

Andy Pekosz: It's more difficult to look at a virus sequence and say, hey, this is a virus that is going to be

00:22:59.794,00:23:10.444

Andy Pekosz: more dangerous to the population. We're going to really need to see the data tracking coming from state public health and the CDC to try to see if we're getting a more severe disease

00:23:10.444,00:23:26.083

Andy Pekosz: And as I've mentioned prior, we also have to realize more cases will result in more severe disease. What we're looking for is the proportion of those severe disease cases based on the total number of cases. Last thing I'll say about the flu vaccine is

00:23:26.084,00:23:34.164

Andy Pekosz: you know, there are 3 different influenza strains that cause influenza. The vaccine Covers all three.

00:23:34.264,00:23:52.173

Andy Pekosz: And with two of them, it looks like there's a pretty good match right now. So the flu vaccine is going to be beneficial, because it should give you good protection against two of the circulating strains, and we think it'll provide at least partial protection against this Clade K H3N2 virus.

00:23:53.394,00:24:08.033

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. Here's a question from Susan Morse with HIMSS, Healthcare Finance News, for Professor Pekosz. Do you have concerns about vaccine policy given the HHS Secretary's controversial stance on vaccines?

00:24:10.294,00:24:13.774

Andy Pekosz: Yes. I mean, I think we all want

00:24:13.814,00:24:32.604

Andy Pekosz: government guidance on vaccines to reflect what the science tells us. There have been several professional medical societies, as well as state public health departments, and even schools of public health across the U.S. that are really trying to keep the vaccine recommendations grounded in the science.

00:24:32.634,00:24:37.264

Andy Pekosz: But this sometimes is not consistent with some of the communications coming from the

00:24:37.274,00:24:52.853

Andy Pekosz: Department of Health and Human Services, and from other government entities. And, you know, that makes it difficult for the average person to really get the correct information. They have to sometimes search further to get the right advice, and when they see conflicting advice.

00:24:52.874,00:25:10.084

Andy Pekosz: That just sows doubt, and we all know that when an individual has some level of doubt, the first thing that ends up doing is inaction. So you won't end up getting the vaccine, even if you're not necessarily an anti-vaccine person, because you're seeing these mixed messages.

00:25:10.084,00:25:24.304

Andy Pekosz: We'd really want to get the science to be driving the vaccine recommendations, and again, professional medical societies and state public health departments are stepping up there to really try to clarify that for the general public.

00:25:25.294,00:25:50.294

Ellen Wilson: And following on this for you, Professor Moss, from Alicia Ott with Medscape Medical News, CDC has not held any formal briefings on these measles outbreaks, but apparently is still providing some assistance to states. What is the impact of the agency not being out in front with these outbreaks? Is the public missing out on important messages or information?

00:25:50.294,00:25:55.993

Ellen Wilson: that clinicians in other parts of the country are aware of the South Carolina outbreak.

00:25:57.574,00:26:07.234

William Moss: Yes, I mean, this is a really important question, and obviously, for decades, the CDC has really been a leader here in this country, as well as globally.

00:26:07.584,00:26:17.534

William Moss: In, in providing trustworthy, information, in doing… conducting outbreak investigations and leading responses

00:26:17.534,00:26:32.964

William Moss: to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. So, the fact that we have not seen the CDC kind of out in front on these measles outbreaks is harmful, because it is withholding important information

00:26:32.964,00:26:45.504

William Moss: from the public and from, healthcare providers, from public health officials. I'm thinking also of, what happened in Louisiana with the pertussis outbreaks and the…

00:26:45.624,00:26:48.664

William Moss: Failure to,

00:26:48.664,00:27:11.523

William Moss: time, you know, failure to have timely communication about that outbreak. And so, obviously, if people aren't aware, that there are outbreaks in their, in their states, in their jurisdictions, or even in neighboring areas or places they plan to travel to, they can't prepare adequately. And so.

00:27:11.524,00:27:23.584

William Moss: We're working at IVAC, along with our colleagues, at the Whiting School of Engineering, and other colleagues, to really provide… help provide some of the information

00:27:23.584,00:27:35.854

William Moss: on where these outbreaks are occurring at the county level so that people can plan. But in short, it's not helpful that the CDC has been somewhat sidelined on this.

00:27:36.924,00:27:50.884

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. Here's a question from Scott Massiani with WYPR News for Professor Pekosz. Are there any geographic areas in the U.S. where we are seeing clay decay spiking more than others?

00:27:52.204,00:28:01.733

Andy Pekosz: Yeah, right now we're seeing Clade K everywhere we see influenza. More cases of influenza are in a couple of states.

00:28:01.734,00:28:17.054

Andy Pekosz: Colorado, Louisiana, and New York, are ones that are experiencing really fast increases in influenza. But even in places like Maryland right now, where cases are not that high, it's the Clay K virus that seems to be the dominant virus.

00:28:17.054,00:28:33.444

Andy Pekosz: So there's no doubt that the flu season, at least these early parts of the flu season, will be driven by clade K, and while the… while different states are at different stages of the influenza outbreak, meaning some states haven't had a lot of circulation, some states already do.

00:28:33.444,00:28:45.904

Andy Pekosz: By the end of the flu season, in the next 2 to 3 months, every state will experience high amounts of influenza activity. We just don't know exactly when each state will start and end in terms of those outbreaks.

00:28:46.444,00:29:02.443

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you. And here is the last question from Jessica McDonald with factcheck.org for Professor Moss. Which claims from the December CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting were most alarming to you, and why?

00:29:03.314,00:29:18.474

William Moss: Great question, and there were probably many, many statements to be alarmed about. As I think about it, you know, I think probably the statements that really, rather than specific,

00:29:18.504,00:29:30.164

William Moss: statements about a particular vaccine, just the general undermining of the process by which our current childhood immunization schedule

00:29:30.164,00:29:39.593

William Moss: The evidence base for that… for that schedule, and the rigorous, evaluations that have traditionally gone on to inform that.

00:29:39.594,00:29:46.844

William Moss: So, you know, I'm thinking of Aaron Siri's long discussion that really kind of undermined

00:29:46.844,00:30:02.463

William Moss: the process, that, I think, is most… more damaging, in my view, than perhaps some of the specific vaccine recommendations, and that sows doubt across all vaccines.

00:30:02.464,00:30:12.143

William Moss: And some of the proposals were just, you know, unfeasible or preposterous, particularly around some of the placebo-controlled trials.

00:30:12.714,00:30:22.264

Ellen Wilson: Great. Well, thank you for answering all the questions. We will now take just a minute, to share brief closing remarks. Professor Pekosz, please go ahead.

00:30:23.214,00:30:33.713

Andy Pekosz: So as we enter the time of holiday travel and gatherings, it's good to remember that COVID-19, influenza, and RSV cause a lot of hospitalizations and deaths every year.

00:30:33.794,00:30:51.013

Andy Pekosz: While things are not as bad as they were during the COVID-19 pandemic peak years, awareness and actions like staying home when you are sick, minimizing time in crowded settings, can be taken by everyone to limit the spread and impact of these respiratory infections.

00:30:51.404,00:31:03.943

Andy Pekosz: At-home tests for influenza and COVID-19 are available, as are antivirals for both of those infections. If you are in a high-risk group for severe influenza or COVID-19, be prepared.

00:31:03.944,00:31:20.273

Andy Pekosz: Know what the process is at your local pharmacy for getting a prescription for these drugs, because the earlier you take those drugs, the more likely you'll have a positive impact in terms of shortening the disease and stopping its progression to a serious nature.

00:31:20.514,00:31:37.984

Andy Pekosz: Vaccines are the best way to protect from influenza and COVID-19. It is not too late to get your vaccines for both of those viruses, but being aware of the other things we can do to limit infection and spread can make a significant impact on the spread of these viruses in the population, and make all of us more healthy.

00:31:38.674,00:31:43.714

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you so much, Professor Pekosz. Now, Professor Moss, please go ahead.

00:31:44.144,00:31:51.363

William Moss: Yes, unfortunately, I see a perfect storm brewing for the resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases.

00:31:51.424,00:32:04.703

William Moss: U.S. funding cuts to some of the key global players in preventing vaccine-preventable diseases, such as the dismantling of USAID,

00:32:04.794,00:32:20.743

William Moss: The funding cuts to GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, and the World Health Organization, all of these are going to contribute to more frequent and larger outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases across the world, and what that's going to lead to is more frequent importations of these

00:32:20.744,00:32:28.144

William Moss: pathogens here into the United States. And then here in the United States, we're seeing this sowing of mistrust

00:32:28.144,00:32:36.573

William Moss: Around vaccines, we're seeing declining vaccine coverage, the loosening of school entry vaccine requirements.

00:32:36.574,00:32:52.734

William Moss: All of this is going to make us more vulnerable to, again, more frequent and larger outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. And it's just such a tragedy because we've made such progress as a country and as a global community against these diseases.

00:32:52.734,00:32:58.824

William Moss: To see this backsliding, is very unfortunate, and we really need to turn this around.

00:32:59.854,00:33:14.074

Ellen Wilson: Great, thank you so much to both of you for your really insightful answers. We will email the links to the resources mentioned today and shared in the chat, and with that, I'd like to say thank you again to everyone for joining us today.